By Daniel Henninger
" White House Chief of Staff John Kelly just won his tough midterm reelection fight. Confounding reports that President Trump would throw Mr. Kelly off the train, the former Marine commander informed his staff he would remain in the world’s most stressful job through the 2020 election. For anxious Republicans heading into their own midterm battles, the Kelly reinstatement may be a good omen. These days, omens matter.
The Trump presidency has been a dizzying house of mirrors. Republicans entered it nearly two years ago, and we’ll find out in November how many make it out the other end.
Join me for a walk-through.
In mid-June, the country stopped what it was doing to transfix for days over the spectacle of children separated from their parents in Texas. You can argue about the policy merits, but like a curved mirror it had one effect: Everyone involved looked smaller.
Four weeks later, the news cycle pumped out days of disorienting political optics around the mysterious press conference Mr. Trump conducted after his private meeting with Vladimir Putin. A week later, Mr. Trump said he would invite Mr. Putin to Washington amid the election. Then he said he wouldn’t, until next year.
In recent days, Mr. Trump has erected more mirrors for Republicans to navigate. On Sunday, he tweeted he would shut down the government before the election. Privately, he says he won’t.
He tweeted Tuesday morning that Charles and David Koch are “a total joke in real Republican circles”—even as many Republicans are counting on the Koch network’s donors to keep them competitive against well-funded Democratic opponents.
The next morning the president’s tweet-loaded Gatling gun demanded that Attorney General Jeff Sessions shut down Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation “right now.”
Steve Bannon is demanding that Republicans run on every jot or tweeted tittle in the Trump agenda. But only Donald Trump himself could run for re-election on all this stuff simultaneously. For Republican candidates in competitive races—meaning the races in which 2 or 3 percentage points in the wrong direction means they lose the election and control of the House—the way forward requires simplicity and clarity, not a thousand points of rage.
A message to Republicans lost in the Trump fun house: Run on something solid. Run on something you understand. Join yourself at the hip with the greatest accomplishment of Donald Trump’s presidency. Run on America’s booming economy. (Footnote: For put-off GOP voters who need more reason to show up, the next 30 years of the Gorsuch-Kavanaugh court was why they signed on for this ride in 2016.)
Reports have circulated recently that some House Republicans are wary of running on the Trump tax cuts or the economy. Somebody once said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Someone else said the GOP was the stupid party. If professional politicians can’t shape a campaign around an economy about which Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last month, “Most people who want a job can find one,” then they deserve the s-word.
Other reluctant Republicans have said they were waiting for wage growth to reappear. It just did. On Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that in the past 12 months wages and salaries rose 2.8%, the largest single-year pay raise since September 2008. In other words, the Trump economic team, in 18 months, has turned the economic performance of Barack Obama’s eight years into a bad memory.
People forget. It was awful. In January 2013, the unemployment rate was 8%. For black Americans it was 13.7%.
With the notable exception of the guy who translated this grim world into “Make America great again,” most politicians in the GOP, presumably the party of the private sector, don’t know how to talk about economics as a lived reality.
The reality during the Obama years was that people were losing hope. Mr. Obama’s constant speeches about “a job that pays the bills” and “a chance to get ahead” were just . . . speeches. His interpreters tried to rebrand this long ennui of unemployment as the “new normal.”
The economy of the past year—with a real chance now of landing a self- or family-supporting job—is what most Americans outside the political circle of Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hope is the new normal.
That said, a Trumpian reality check. As these words were written Wednesday afternoon, the Fed announced it wouldn’t raise interest rates and called the economy “strong” six times. Minutes later came a Journal report that the Trump White House may raise its threatened tariff on Chinese goods to 25%. The stock market, Mr. Trump’s favorite economic metric, tried to rise on the Fed’s bullish words but couldn’t, and ended in the red.
Republicans have one big, winning story to tell—if the fun-house mirrors don’t crack in the next three months. "
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