ijwthstd wrote on May 7
th, 2008 at 11:28am:
Ian Billen wrote on May 7
th, 2008 at 2:12am:
Well, this is a Rock n Roll (primarily) discussion board (primarily focused on our Stones) and I am shy *about even starting to respond on a political concern but...
Many of us have been watching this race and I have been following it as well so here goes...
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A win is a win to HRC and her campaign. The bottom line here folks, is that no matter how we slice it and dice this race WILL ultimately be decided by who the super-delegates choose in hopes to Win the November General election. Unless the candidate reaches 2025 delegates (and even then the super-dels can still over-turn it) the race goes to the convention to be decided. They will choose by not only how well the candidates did in the primary but... how well they think they will fare in the general.
He only needs 148 to go and even Clinton supporters are urging her to quit.
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*I'll state my case here and this is all the further I will post about it:
*Actually he needs 178 and Ohbama is unlikely (although not impossible just pretty darn unlikely) to reach 2025 at this races end in June. Remember a candidate NEEDS 2025 to be nominated. That is under DNC rules and that is the fact. The bottom line here is 2025 regardless of how ahead or behind any candidate is. If the candidate has not reached 2025 the superdelegates get involved either before or at the convention.
Quote:Hillary still has her "legitimate bitches" to her argument that the super-delegates should choose her:
1. She has ALL the big chip states. Cal. Penn. Ohio. New York. New Jers...
Not really - she just won a few more delegates than Obama in each state. That was one of the problems with her strategy compared to Obama's. The Clinton strategy was "winning states" while Obama's was collecting delegates. Looks like his worked out better for him.
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*Yes, really. She won these states by the popular vote as well as delegates. A win is a win. How eles can anyone see that as any different? She won on both accounts. It may of been close in some states but if you look at the popular vote as well as delegate count (except maybe texas...depending) from each of these key states she will be in the win column and he will be in the loss column on both facets. How can you argue with that???
Quote:2. She is the supposed winner in uncounted contests in Florida and Michigan...which she and her supporters feel fall under her belt as legitimate wins (even though they are not supposed to be counted)
And they shouldn't be. But this is what's going to keep her in until August.
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*Maybe in some peoples opinion they shouldn't be counted in this scenario but guess what....the reality is they will find a way to seat them it is seeming from the latest negotiations. Even if it means her only somewhat gaining a few numbers to her in her delegates count. Also she will then have the popular vote in her favor over all. if this happens. Something more to persuade the superdelegates.
Quote:3. More of her support claims they will NOT vote for Ohbahma if he is the nominee versus how many of his supporters will vote for her if she is the nominee.
In the end everyone will vote for who they are told to. Democrats and Republicans who said they would sit this one out rather than vote for McCain.
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*Not entirely so. The race has a considerable amount of voters that will note vote for a black individual versus the opposite. It may not be righteous but still the race card plays a bit of a role here.
Quote:4. For at least right now, she is doing slightly better in polls related to winning head-to-head against Mcain versus Ohbama going head to head with Mcain in November.
General election polls are too unreliable until after Labor Day.
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*Call them what you will but they are what they are and they are in her favor right now. If these polls were not in her favor you can believe you would her his case against hers on the matter. The superdelegates will somewhat take this into consideration.
Quote:Consequently NEVER has a candidate lost the crucial states Ohbama has lost in the primary (or the general election) and went on to be President. She will argue she is the best in the key states needed in November. She will argue her demographic is the working class, blue collar Americans which make the base of the democratic votes in a general. Those votes are the most needed and crucial for the Dems to win in a general. Obahma falls "considerably enough" short in this category.
Working class blue collar have been drifting toward the Republicans in the last few decades. Also, who won what primary really has no bearing on who wins the states in a general election.
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*Not in the history of this country has any candidate even so much as lost Ohio, PA, Texas, California and New York and went on to win in the general. Not even close to such scenario has this ever occurred. Losing in these states shows a weakness exposed. How can you go with the runner up in these key states? Even if he did come close in one or two of those?
Quote:She will insist she has more experience and knowledge of Washington.
Many of those Super Dels will see her side of things. No matter what the tally is by the time the convention rolls around.
Many will but even more won't. And a lot of super delegates are elected officials and don't want to face their constituents and explain why they took the nomination from someone who got more votes. A few have even changed their vote based upon the popular vote of their congressional districts.
Quote:Just my humble opinion. As crazy as it seems... I think they may decide on Hillary as the nominee based on her "legitimate bitches" I listed above.
A blowout in Indiana might have kept her viable but it's over, aside from any really nasty tricks she might pull in Denver
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*A win is a win. Indiana is a key "swing state" in the election as well. It has an African American, Farming Country, and Blue collar mixed bag demographic. A true test to an election testy democratic playing field. You simply should win states like that no matter how close if you are the stronger democratic candidate. Ohbama called the state a "tie-breaker" a while ago because at the time he was favored to win it. Actually he was favored to win it until just about three weeks ago. Hillary actually came from behind to win in Indiana initially so it is a strong win for her over-all. She will easily trounce Ohbama in Kentucky and West Virginia coming up by up to 15-20 percent....then her case will be alive and well again.
If she can make it close in Oregon and win nicely in Puerto-Rico we will have a strong debate and she will have a strong case on closely considering the big picture on who should be the nominee.
In all fairness (and I like the guy) what major state has Barach Ohbama really won? None really. Just Illinois (if you consider that a major) and he damn well should of because he is from there for the most part. He has not won any real big chip state yet. She wins all those.
Take New York, California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts's
and compare this to what he has won...Alabama, North Dakota, Louisianan, Utah, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Mississippi etc. etc.
See the difference there...
The states he has won are not "game changing" big league states. He won particular states by more favorable margins so this is why he is ahead a bit in the over all tally. But he has not won a major state nor has he won in any "swing states" and he has outspent her 3 to 1 in these major test states and every time he has lost in these crucial "test states" as they are called.
The superdelegates will be taking all this into consideration is my point.
Ohbama looks like close lead on paper just as far as delegate math goes but there is far much greater tale to be told when you look at the big picture. Count Florida and Michigan and the math is even much much closer.
-All this all means something. This is why I think she has such a strong case. She has been is the big chip
winner this entire race. He hasn't won one of those big state prizes or any of the swing states yet... OK he wins in Connecticut and Maine and states like this real big. Well she wins in states like New York and California by a decent margin. See the difference there? ... Take very much into consideration she has the Blue Collar Americans who are the core base of the democratic votes in which many will never vote for Ohbama if he is elected based on his color as wrong as that is. Who would you you pick to run in the general based on my points listed here and based on an over all smart winning strategy for the general election?
Something to ponder...
Ian