Ian Billen wrote on May 7
th, 2008 at 2:12am:
Well, this is a Rock n Roll (primarily) discussion board (primarily focused on our Stones) and I am shy about even starting to respond on a political concern but...
Many of us have been watching this race and I have been following it as well so here goes...
A win is a win to HRC and her campaign. The bottom line here folks, is that no matter how we slice it and dice this race WILL ultimately be decided by who the super-delegates choose in hopes to Win the November General election. Unless the candidate reaches 2025 delegates (and even then the super-dels can still over-turn it) the race goes to the convention to be decided. They will choose by not only how well the candidates did in the primary but... how well they think they will fare in the general.
He only needs 148 to go and even Clinton supporters are urging her to quit.
Quote:Hillary still has her "legitimate bitches" to her argument that the super-delegates should choose her:
1. She has ALL the big chip states. Cal. Penn. Ohio. New York. New Jers...
Not really - she just won a few more delegates than Obama in each state. That was one of the problems with her strategy compared to Obama's. The Clinton strategy was "winning states" while Obama's was collecting delegates. Looks like his worked out better for him.
Quote:2. She is the supposed winner in uncounted contests in Florida and Michigan...which she and her supporters feel fall under her belt as legitimate wins (even though they are not supposed to be counted)
And they shouldn't be. But this is what's going to keep her in until August.
Quote:3. More of her support claims they will NOT vote for Ohbahma if he is the nominee versus how many of his supporters will vote for her if she is the nominee.
In the end everyone will vote for who they are told to. Democrats and Republicans who said they would sit this one out rather than vote for McCain.
Quote:4. For at least right now, she is doing slightly better in polls related to winning head-to-head against Mcain versus Ohbama going head to head with Mcain in November.
General election polls are too unreliable until after Labor Day.
Quote:*Consequently NEVER has a candidate lost the crucial states Ohbama has lost in the primary (or the general election) and went on to be President. She will argue she is the best in the key states needed in November. She will argue her demographic is the working class, blue collar Americans which make the base of the democratic votes in a general. Those votes are the most needed and crucial for the Dems to win in a general. Obahma falls "considerably enough" short in this category.
Working class blue collar have been drifting toward the Republicans in the last few decades. Also, who won what primary really has no bearing on who wins the states in a general election.
Quote:She will insist she has more experience and knowledge of Washington.
Many of those Super Dels will see her side of things. No matter what the tally is by the time the convention rolls around.
Many will but even more won't. And a lot of super delegates are elected officials and don't want to face their constituents and explain why they took the nomination from someone who got more votes. A few have even changed their vote based upon the popular vote of their congressional districts.
Quote:Just my humble opinion. As crazy as it seems... I think they may decide on Hillary as the nominee based on her "legitimate bitches" I listed above.
A blowout in Indiana might have kept her viable but it's over, aside from any really nasty tricks she might pull in Denver